Kalshi Odds: Tim Pool's Threat the Shutdown Show at 5%

Tim Pool announced plans to shutter his popular podcast, Timcast IRL, amid skyrocketing security expenses and recent threats to his safety, only for a leading prediction market to handily bet against any such move.

Pool detailed the woes during a recent live broadcast, pointing to armed guards and fortified gates as necessities after shots rang out near his property and a barrage of death threats targeted his family.

The host explained that the financial strain from these protections has outpaced revenue from the show, which draws millions of views weekly across platforms like YouTube and Rumble.

Kalshi quickly launched a market on whether Pool would cease production of Timcast IRL by the end of the year.

Traders piled in with overwhelming confidence that he would not quit, driving the "No" contract to trade at 95 cents on the dollar, implying a 95 percent probability of the show grinding on.

"This is easy money," said one social media user. "You'd have to be a moron to believe Tim Pool's going to give up his show."

Industry observers note that Pool's threats to walk away echo past episodes, including a 2024 dust-up over YouTube demonetization that fizzled without cancellation.

Kalshi's market mechanics allow participants to buy shares in yes-or-no outcomes, settling at full value for correct predictions and zero for wrong ones, which has made the platform a go-to for hedging against media hype.

"Business is business, and when costs eclipse income, you adapt, or you fold," Pool said.

As trading continues on Kalshi, the odds remain stacked against Pool's departure, turning what could have been a somber valediction into yet another chapter of unfulfilled ultimatums in the podcasting arena.

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